A few days ago, I expressed some frustration because I don’t know who is vaccinated. That makes me feel unsafe when I’m among strangers. I was worried about this because Alberta seems to have a high number of people who are vaccine-hesitant or resistant.
In response to that blog post, Tildeb provided extensive comments for which I am very grateful. I have taken from those comments some statements that I thought were very significant in helping us all understand both the current situation and the role of vaccines in bringing the disease under control.
I have added a little information and edited for clarity. Tildeb has offered to answer any questions.
- Alberta right now has Covid-19 numbers higher – yes, higher – than India
- Rates of transmission (i.e. the average number of people someone with Covid-19 will infect) fall below one when 75% of a population have received one dose of vaccine and 20% have received two.
- Only by getting that rate below one other infection per infected person will the pandemic start to end. At present, Alberta’s Rate of Transmission (Rt value) is 1.12, meaning that the rate is increasing. This indicates a much faster doubling rate to exceed ICU capacity (17 days)
- Today in Alberta, in the first 5 days (before self-isolation), each positive case produces just shy of 12 other infected people.
- The most insidious aspect of SARS-CoV-2 is that transmission occurs prior to the onset of symptoms (estimated on average to be for 5 days).
- Without vaccination, the overall risk for getting sick with Covid-19 is calculated using the example of living with an infected spouse. The actual likelihood is about 30% for a 14-day infection, meaning 30 people out of hundred living with an infected person will become infected.
- If a person living with an infected person has had a single dose of any of the vaccinations (there is a time lag between getting the first shot and having it take full effect), this likelihood drops to about 3%.
- The likelihood of a blood clot from the protein vaccines is at the very worst about1/250000th of 1%. Real world data is coming in around 1/1000000-150000000th of 1%.
- Nearly 1 in 4 people who have had Covid-19 suffer from lingering aftereffects 6 months later – some with significant life-altering debilities.
- Case counts are nearing 2500+ a day now. In three weeks, that will be over 4000 per day and, without a lockdown now, increasing for a minimum of 21 MORE days.
- The per million case count in Alberta is about double that of Ontario (and Ontario today is worse than any US state ever was).
- In the US, triaging (deciding who gets treatment or gets treated first) led to 20% hospital staff leaving their profession. Not just taking time off or moving but deciding they felt being forced into making such decisions and dealing with the emotional cost was not what they went into medicine and nursing and specialities to do.
- Over 7000 residents and care workers in long-term care got infected in a matter of weeks and about 40% of these residents died.
- The young are now as vulnerable as the elderly were earlier in the pandemic but, rather than dying, run a significant risk of contracting a life-long impairment.
- RISK EQUALS THE NUMBER OF CONTACTS and more and more often the only barrier between a young person and this disease is a mask worn properly by someone six feet away.
I realize that this post is heavy on statistics, but I hope it helps to clarify our current situation. Many thanks to Tildeb for his research and concern.